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Demand forecasting results in an estimate of future demand and gives an organization a basis for planning and making sound business decisions. Since the future is unknown, it is expected that some errors between a forecast and actual demand will exist, so the goal of a good forecasting technique would be to minimize the difference between the forecast and the actual demand. Articulate the difference in short and long-term forecasts, forecasting techniques, and the benefits and challenges of each technique. Finally, create a forecast for a situation with which you are familiar (personal or professional) explaining the situation and why you chose the method of forecasting that you did.

Sample Solution

The two clues are the patient takes Ultram and Percocet, this combination of drugs cause serotonin syndrome. The physician noted that Mrs. X had excessively used narcotics, but did not put this two together with this outcome. In addition, the physician found she had not utilized narcotics for the last three to four days. The overuse of narcotics and withdrawal of narcotics could have led to altered mental status or decreased level of consciousness. As a result, the doctor encouraged Mrs. X to continue using her medications. The physician should have done a narcotic overdose or withdrawal differential diagnosis. Additional historical information includes mental health history, smoking history and OTC and narcotic drug history. The physician should ensure the husband gives a detailed description of OTC and narcotic drugs used. The husband should identify the type of drug used, dosage, dosing schedule and reasons for using the drug. A detailed drug history enables the physician identify drug interaction cases and overdose. The family members have expressed concern over the misuse of narcotics as they believe Mrs. X is misusing narcotics. Nevertheless, they do not state the narcotics used and dosage. Dietary supplements can interact with other drugs and have an adverse impact on the patient. Further, the doctor should ensure the husband gives a comprehensive description of tobacco smoking history. The husband should state the number of packets she smokes in a day. Additionally, the doctor should obtained information regarding the mental status of the patient. Elderly people are prone to mental disorders and they negatively affect their functioning. Some of the mental illnesses are depression, focal neurologic deficit, delirium, dementia among others. Mental health problems affect cognitive functioning. Understanding the mental health history helps in determining the causes of symptoms elderly patients present with. In this case, Mrs. X is unable to speak and has altered mental status. The physician needs information about Mrs. X’s mental health history to determine the cause of the decreased level of consciousness. Mental disorders such as delirium, dementia and focal neurological deficit change the mental status of the patient.>

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