Imagine that you are a successful business executive for a toy company, ChoiceToys. You are tasked to market one of the two new toys for the upcoming holiday season based on an optimal decision strategy. As the data analyst, you will be responsible for providing the expected profit payoff and associated probabilities.
Part 1 (Due by Day 3)
In your initial post, using the scenario below, you will be acting as the data executive speaking to a data analyst. You will need to speak to the data analyst and get more information so you can develop a decision analysis. Given the information the data analyst has provided, what more data do you think you need to create a decision analysis?
Toy 1 is being introduced to the market for the first time by ChoiceToys with no market competition. ChoiceToys believes that competitors will not be able to bring a similar toy to the market for this upcoming holiday season. You are not sure how the toy will be received by the consumers and there is equal chance that it will be highly successful, successful, or not successful. You will need to determine what the expected profit payoff will be and provide this in your scenario.
Toy 2 has been in the market, is known to consumers, and is in demand; however, it has two other competitors in the marketplace. If marketed, ChoiceToys will be one of the three companies selling this toy in the market in the upcoming holiday season. You will have to determine the profit payoff for Toy 2 respectively for a highly successful, successful, and not successful case. You will also need to determine the probability that Toy 2 will be highly successful in the market and equal chances for being successful or not successful in the market.
Part 2 (Due by Day 6)
As a data analyst, you need to use decision analysis techniques to recommend decision alternatives or optimal decisions based on expected profit payoff for the upcoming holiday season. Respond to one of your peersâ initial posts, and complete the following:
Identify the sequence of actions you need to take to start this decision process.
Explain each sequence and justify why it will help you with your decision.
Propose a risk profile for each choice.
Guided Response: Your initial response should be a minimum of 300 words in length. Respond to at least two peers by Day 7. In your first response, critique one of your peersâ Part 1 scenarios. In your second response, critique a studentâs Part 2 reply to the scenario that has not been critiqued by others, for each of the following:
Missing or out of place sequences of actions. Justify your assessment.
Determination of essential decisions and uncertainties. Justify your reasons.
Determination of risk profile for each choice. Explain your assessment.
Sample Solution
etween the 1970s and 80s, several studies were focused on arriving at a widely agreed upon definition of terrorism, however, the efforts were largely futile (Silke, 2004). Recognising the arduous nature of the task, Laqueur (1977) summarily suggested that the quest for an all-embracing definition of terrorism be abandoned. While, terrorism-focused studies seems to be on a decline, due in part to the limited number of experts in the field, and consequently, the volume of available literature, the number of conceptual papers focused on the definitional problem of terrorism has also been negligible. For instance Silke investigated articles published within a 10-year period (1990 â 1999), and found that only eight of the 490 articles used for the study were dedicated to resolving the definitional quagmire (Silke, 2004). Additionally, Weinberg, Pedahzur and Hirsch-Hoefler (2004) also remarked that only a few of the researchers in their study placed premium on the definition muddle (p. 782-783). While, Silke (2004) had warned that the war-weariness exhibited by researchers regarding the terrorism definition challenge, needed to be surmounted (p. 208), others like Grob-Frizgibbon (2005) had indicated that arriving at a generally acceptable definition remained critical, especially in the post 9/11 environment. In addition, resolving the debate holds great benefits across the different layers of society. For instance, it would amount to a significant breakthrough in the theoretical advancement of the field of terrorism studies, and by extension positive outcomes for policy formation and legislation (Richards, 2014); aid in the understanding of the various shades and expressions of terrorism (Schmid, 2004a); curb terrorism (Schmid; 2004b); rein in the excesses of state apparatus in counterterrorism campaigns (Golder & Wi>
GET ANSWER
etween the 1970s and 80s, several studies were focused on arriving at a widely agreed upon definition of terrorism, however, the efforts were largely futile (Silke, 2004). Recognising the arduous nature of the task, Laqueur (1977) summarily suggested that the quest for an all-embracing definition of terrorism be abandoned. While, terrorism-focused studies seems to be on a decline, due in part to the limited number of experts in the field, and consequently, the volume of available literature, the number of conceptual papers focused on the definitional problem of terrorism has also been negligible. For instance Silke investigated articles published within a 10-year period (1990 â 1999), and found that only eight of the 490 articles used for the study were dedicated to resolving the definitional quagmire (Silke, 2004). Additionally, Weinberg, Pedahzur and Hirsch-Hoefler (2004) also remarked that only a few of the researchers in their study placed premium on the definition muddle (p. 782-783). While, Silke (2004) had warned that the war-weariness exhibited by researchers regarding the terrorism definition challenge, needed to be surmounted (p. 208), others like Grob-Frizgibbon (2005) had indicated that arriving at a generally acceptable definition remained critical, especially in the post 9/11 environment. In addition, resolving the debate holds great benefits across the different layers of society. For instance, it would amount to a significant breakthrough in the theoretical advancement of the field of terrorism studies, and by extension positive outcomes for policy formation and legislation (Richards, 2014); aid in the understanding of the various shades and expressions of terrorism (Schmid, 2004a); curb terrorism (Schmid; 2004b); rein in the excesses of state apparatus in counterterrorism campaigns (Golder & Wi>
