Aims and Objectives
The purpose of this coursework is to assess your knowledge and understanding of the link between volcanic hazards and weather mapping, and to consider the associated impacts.

Scenario
A new volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallaj�kull has recently taken place, which has the potential to send a plume of ash across the North Atlantic. It is your task, using available weather data maps, to predict the scale and movement of the ash cloud over northern Europe and produce a report evaluating possible impacts and indicating levels of risk. Your report must be written for the UK’s National Air Traffic Control Service (NATS), assessing impacts on flight paths and air transport, identifying areas where air-space may have to be closed.

Consequently, there are two aims:
1. Using a series of atmospheric weather maps, predict and plot the likely path of volcanic dust emitted from the Eyjafjallaj�kull volcano and outline your predictions in a short summary report;
2. Write a report for NATS, indicating hazards and levels of risk to their operations from the ash cloud.

10. Learning Outcomes
The assessment will evaluate learning outcomes 2 & 3. On completion of this coursework, you should be able to:
2 Recognise the link between atmospheric moisture, weather and global climatic systems;
3 Discuss how the planet�s surface is shaped by active endogenic (internal) agents of change.

Procedure:

Last updated: 0100 BST on Monday 3 October 2016.
Information received from the Icelandic Meteorological Office has confirmed that explosive activity from the Eyjafjallaj�kull volcano has increased in the last two days with ash ejected to a height of between 20,000 and 30,000 feet at times. The Icelandic Met Office states that there are no signs that the eruption is about to end.
Winds are expected to continue blowing for at least the following two days, with most of the ash cloud likely to stay over the Atlantic Ocean and close to western Europe.

In response to the eruption, the UK Met Office has produced a series of four surface pressure forecast maps for the North Atlantic and Europe, covering an area that may be affected by the dust plume over the next 48 hours. The four Met Office pressure forecast maps are reproduced below, covering the time periods T+0, T+12, T+24 and T+36.

T + 0 (present time) – surface pressure forecast for the North Atlantic
T + 12 (the prediction for 12 hours ahead) – surface pressure forecast for the North Atlantic

T + 24 – surface pressure forecast for the North Atlantic
T + 36 – surface pressure forecast for the North Atlantic

Aim 1 – Map Predictions: You must use the four maps from the Met Office, and your own knowledge of atmospheric circulation, to predict the future movement and shape of the ash cloud as it travels over the North Atlantic. Highlight the main atmospheric conditions influencing the movement of the ash cloud. Your predictions for the movement of this cloud should be drawn on each map in turn so that NATS has a clearer idea of those areas where the volcanic dust cloud might pose a threat. You are advised to do this using software such as Powerpoint.
Aim 2 � Report to NATS:
The first part of your report should review the atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic for the next two days, summarise your predictions, and describe the forecast movement of the ash cloud, including and referring to the maps you created in aim 1 (250 words).

The second part of your report should describe and analyse the threats posed by the Icelandic ash cloud for NATS (1400 words). Include a brief introduction to the Eyjafjallaj�kull volcano and the type of volcanism present there. Then review the possible impacts on and threats to air traffic, for example how aircraft and airports may be affected. You should indicate which European airports should be closed and transatlantic flights diverted for the next few days. Finally, you must provide an annotated hazard map of the North Atlantic that highlights areas where aircraft are potentially at high, medium and low risk from the volcanic dust cloud.
Your report should be written in a professional and consistent manner. Refer to the report format guidance available on Moodle. Referencing should follow the CU Harvard guide.
The total written word count for the report is 1650 words. The remaining word count of 350 words is accounted for by the production of the maps (aim 1).

Preparation
You should ensure that you understand
� the nature and hazards of volcanic ash
� atmospheric circulation
� the type of organisation for which the report is written.
Potentially useful web sites include:
NATS – https://www.nats.aero/
Met Office – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ and https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/symbols#pressure-symbols
British Geological Survey – https://www.bgs.ac.uk/