Paper , Order, or Assignment Requirements

Situation: You are the project manager for a home construction company. Another tropical storm is on the way. You are familiar with the possible costs and risks if the storm hits and causes a two week delay since you experienced the storm that hit your San Leo home while it was under construction. You are currently building another San Leo home, and it is essentially in the same condition as the previous home was on July 1. You have two choices: accept the risk that the storm will not hit, or accelerate the construction to get the roof and shingles on before the storm is scheduled to make landfall. If the storm hits while the roof is under construction but not finished, you will have to reconstruct half of what was completed for a cost of $12,000. The weather channel predicts a 60 percent chance of the storm making landfall close enough to your location to cause this damage. If you accelerate construction, it will cost you $8,000.

Assignment: Update your risk register with the new information. Develop a decision tree with two alternatives:

(1) accept the risk and continue construction, or (2) accelerate construction to avoid the risk. You have two states of nature, the storm causes damage 60% probability and the storm does not cause damage. Use expected monetary value analysis for these two decisions and select the preferred alternative (PMBOK  Guide, p. 339).

Also, summarize how you can apply the processes used by project managers to incorporate the core value of responsible stewardship into project monitoring and controlling. Prepare a response on how you would document your analysis and recommendation in a memorandum to your supervisor.