Probability Management (parts 1 and 2) (Sam Savage)
https://www.orms-today.org/orms-2-06/frprobability.html
https://www.orms-today.org/orms-4-06/probability.html
Summarise the paper.
– What problems are the authors trying to solve?
– What do they mean by �coherent� modelling?
– What is their overall scheme for probability management technology?
– How do they think these techniques should be managed?
– How could they be applied more widely than business planning?
Critically analyse the paper.
– How important is this, or could it be, as an element of risk management?
– What kind of people and organizations would be best placed to use Probability Management?
– Who would struggle to do it, or would get no value from it?
– Could probability management be done in simpler ways than the illustration in part 2?

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